Re: Sanity Check
Hi Richie Rich,
Being born into great wealth has hurt your poker.
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Unless Jen plays LAG (which doesn't seem to be the case), her pf raise made it seem like she was most likely holding AA/KK, maybe QQ/AKs. So then, why do you think a LAG (who plays well post-flop) wouldn't be willing to play a hand like J10 against hero's "advertised" range of hands?
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He would. But if he plays well post-flop, he would realize that she likely has a very strong hand on this board, which would make her likely to call a raise when he has the nuts. Further, her hand probably has many outs against the nut straight. Opponent likely has strong 2nd best hand + Free card is dangerous + Big Pot = Don't Slowplay.
People who play well post-flop know that the default line when you flop Broadway is to play it fast, especially against a pre-flop raiser.
In summary,
JT- not likely at all given no flop/turn raise
Ax [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]- Possible, though if Villain plays well, he should realize he's drawing only to a flush on the turn (no other likely outs), so he should fold for 1500 with only 2K left in jen's stack. If he had a J or T with the clubs, then it's a call.
Probability of jen winning- Not great, but probably above 25%, which means a call is right.
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