[DCWildcat]

This is a great topic, and I'm glad you brought it up.

I like your example of extinction burst, though I don't think we could necessarily attribute the TAG's pushing of crappy hands to it. Frustration alone, independent of extinction burst, could have to do with it. Loss of focus, numbing, etc. could contribute. While these are symptomatic of extinction burst, they could just be acting independently.

As a whole, if our poker playing followed operant contingencies, we would all be screwed. Why? Because good decisions often go unrewarded or even punished, and poor decisions often go unpunished or even rewarded. The fall of the cards is random, but our brains can't comprehend that. To them, when hitting gutshot on river after calling getting 2 to 1 -> reinforcement, our probability to engage in that behavior, by definition, increases.

This means, above all else, you are forced to trust your reasoning. One of the reasons I scoff at people who play by "instinct" is that they are, more often by not, playing by what's been reinforced and punished in the pass, and thus are likely to make poor decisions, as explained above.

Good topic choice man.