Re: Probability question for all you math guys....
[ QUOTE ]
Yes, but will the variance of the future trials make up for this fact?
[/ QUOTE ]
This is an interesting question. It appears that you shouldn't always "quit while you're ahead"; the option value of being able to stop if you get lucky early on with drawing blacks outweights the disadvantage of being more likely to draw reds. Or, as you put it, you're being compensated by the variance.
I don't think there's an easy theoretical way to calculate the EV; you can set up a backward recursion beginning with one card to go, then two cards to go, etc. and crunch it out with a computer. I was curious enough to do it in MATLAB and the EV worked out to be about +2.6245.
If anyone's curious enough I can post the code.
|