[TStoneMBD]

i do like betting these hands when you have a gutshot especially against loose passives who wont raise because i want to see a turn. although, i think its vital that if youre going to bet this then you need to think your folding equity outweighs the money youve lost putting a bet in with the worst hand.

i think your pair outs are likely to be good at least half the time giving you about 7 outs which makes me want to proceed on this board.

7 outs equates to rougly 15% pot equity or .45 of a small bet getting 3:1. this means if you were to check and fold you would be passing up on .45 of a small bet whereas if you check and call you are giving the opponent equity by putting money in with the worst hand. however, your pot equity is .45% of a bet. if you invest a bet yourself your pot equity in that bet is .15% of that bet meaning you are investing .85% of a bet to win .45% for -.40% of a bet in ev.

-.40% is better than losing .45%

having said that, you do have implied odds on this board when you catch your gutshot but its hard to estimate how much against an unknown button limper. im not sure if you have reverse implied odds when you catch a pair however. against a loose passive donk such as him he is probably calling your flop bet with any 2 and will sometimes raise making your pot equity far worse having to proceed for 2 bets.

i think there will also be times when you check the flop and he checks behind.

after all this math ive decided that i want to see a turn with this hand but im not sure if i like a bet or a checkcall. betting naturally sounds right according to twoplustwo aggression but i think checkcalling might be more profitable.

after youve bet the flop however i do like betting the turn again. villain has called your flop bet with probably any 2 and you are likely ahead at this point. i would take this to the showdown unless a spade or ace hits the river.