Re: 33 in blind war
Let's talk about the flop:
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Villain is a fairly good player but overaggressive in steal situations. His stats are 30/25/1.3 with a 45 atsb.
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Preflop: ... SB raises, Hero calls.
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Flop: (4 SB) K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ... SB checks
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K42 rainbow and this Villain doesn't make a continuation bet?
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... Hero bets, SB raises
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Never saw that one coming [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img].
Is betting 33 into an almost certain checkraise a good idea? Either we are far behind or he is bluffing and I don't really have any idea how likely these possibilities are. My view is that the risk of a bluff is high enough that we want a showdown and shouldn't make a plan that involves folding.
Case 1: He's slowplaying. Betting the flop is bad and 3-betting is worse. We've already invested 75% of the price of a showdown and the flop isn't even over.
Case 2: It's a bluff with at least six outs but quite possibly the elaborate bluff is based on something like 65 or 53. It might appear that raising pays off here, but does it? Couldn't we have scooped up 2 BB by just sitting back and letting him attack our weakness on the turn and river? Compare that to how the hand played out and bet/3-bet doesn't look very attractive. It's very possible that we took a gigantic risk to wind up with less than the no-risk play would have made us.
The turn is a classic example of the free card play gone awry. You only get this free card when you have the best hand. That you can't find a bet here underscores how far ahead of your hand your flop 3-bet was.
The good thing about the river bet is he is almost always bust and folding so you get to cover up. There are two other unlikely possibilities:
1. He really does have the monster and is trying to recoup the checkraise he missed on the last street. Unusual but not a bad idea on his part.
2. The eight hit his hand and he will call. Oops.
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