[junkmail3]

[ QUOTE ]
I cash in for $1,000. I place $1,000 on the pass line knowing the house has a 1.4% advantage. If I lose then I cash out my $100 refund and never play again. If I win then I cash out my $2,000 and never play again.

Now, normally 50.7% of the time I lose $1,000. 49.3% of the time I win $1,000.

.507*-($1,000) + .493*($1,000) = -$14.00

However, I get $100 back if I lose, so I really only lose $900 instead of $1,000. Thus, my EV is

EV = .507*(-$900) + .493*($1,000) = $36.70

How is this -EV?

[/ QUOTE ]

XChamp,

Please see my post where I rescinded my previous comments.