[Post-Oak]

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It seem seems that you made the hand very tricky on yourself as you have zero idea what the MP has. He could have bet $2000 because he smelled weakness, because he wanted to protect an overpair, because he was on a draw, etc.


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I agree that this hand has gotten very tricky. I don't agree with the range of reasons that you give for MP betting 2K here.

The pot is already 3.5K+ plus, so why does he bet only 2K? Surely he knows that button could be on a big draw and they are both VERY deep stacked (I wish the OP had given us the specific amounts - 15K?).

1. he smelled weakness?
Not possible IMO. He started this hand by overbetting the pot. He got called. Then there was a checkraise. He called AND the button called. He is not sensing weakness from anyone here.

2. because he wanted to protect an overpair
See #1. He is done with the hand if he was dumb enough to call the checkraise with just an overpair and the button bet caller still to act behind him. When the button also calls the checkraise, he has to know an overpair is no good. When he bets here he will have two people to act behind him, and one has already shown a proclivity to checkraise.

3. because he was on a draw
It seems he could be putting this out there as a little bit of a "blocking bet" type move where he wants to correctly price himself in for his big draw. But wouldn't he be worried that button is still to act and Hero has already checkraised?

4. I think he is pricing you in to push
I think he wants a push here from you. Button calls, you push, he can now push and ruin button's big draw. This means he has 78 of course.

You don't give the size of the villains' stacks, but I assume they are in the 15K+ range. This means they are more concerned with each other's stacks as far as being on a big draw is concerned (or set against straight). When he (under)bets 2K he has to know that you are pretty much being given the option to push or fold. I would hate to just call here. There are a lot of scare cards which could fall. You would only have ~4K left and the pot would be huge (~9.5K). I can't see calling and then folding if a heart, 7 or 8 falls.

5. he is putting out a feeler bet with bottom set?
I guess it is possible that he is confused as to just what the hell these people have and he wants a better idea. 2K is a lot cheaper than betting close to the pot.

There are 3 people in this hand and all are showing strength. Everyone in the hand must assume that they are up against a straight, set or big draw (or possible from villains' perspectives that hero has 2 pair and checked the turn because the checkraise getting called by 2 people means he is done with the hand).

I think you have to push or fold. I don't like calling. I would fold. I just think that the most likely explanation of MP underbetting the pot is to goad you into pushing.

I would lean towards folding. Pushing is OK too because of the pot size. It is not true that pushing is bad because of "deep stacks". Your stack is no longer deep in relation to the pot. You would be coming over the top for 4K more into a 9.5K pot.

Again, the question is why MP would bet 2K into a 3.5K pot with a draw heavy board and two opponents who have shown strength. If he has a set I think he would bet more. And then when button calls, it is probable that your set is no good here. Even if it is good at the moment, button or MP could actually be on a big draw and have 9-12 outs.

So I lean towards folding, but pushing seems OK because of the massive pot. Calling I like least.