[PokerBabe(aka)]

No, it tells that the media coverage of the pros, and even many pros themselves but certainly not all, had no freaking idea how many excellent players are out there who don't write articles for cardplayer magazine.

Natedogg.....Estimates of the success rate of professional poker players run from 1/2 of 1% to 1%. The fact is that MOST people who try to play professionally FAIL. Even in my own little microcosm of the Vegas dayshift, I have seen 4 or 5 very good players bust out over the last 18 months. These LONG time EXPERIENCED players used to beat the game and no longer found that they could. Did they suddenly "forget" how to play? Surely not. What happened is that they could not beat the "newer contingent" of player who is difficult to read. Because the "newer contingent" I am describing makes so many errors (both before and after the flop, it often requires the pros to pay off more at the river and to put more bets in on other streets. Obviously, this can impact short term results and increase variance until the pros can master the "learning curve" required to play in the "new world".
Additionally, bankroll drawdowns have created problems for previously winning players who can't overcome the variance they are experiencing. Remember, some people actually live off their poker income, so they don't have other sources to fall back on.


Three of my closest friends who are LONG TIME winning pros at 30-60 and higher have had their worst months EVER in the last 18 months. Their drawdrowns are so off the chart that it's not even close to being some lower limit average which can be explained by "normal fluctuations". Just a coincidence you say? No, I think not.

Your comment that there are excellent players who don't write for magazines is certainly correct, but I think you GREATLY overestimate how good these players are and how many of them are out there. Many people forget that the short term luck factor in tournaments is tremendous. You cannot judge a player by one tournament. Also, as you know, live action games play quite diffently than tournaments. Time will surely tell who can succeed, but my money is on the "old line" pros like Daniel and Annie. These are 2 of the best players in the world, and they will crucify these new guys who think they can outplay everyone.

From my experience and that of Vegas pros I know and highly respect, I can tell you that there are players coming into the game who are inexperienced and who are destined to fail. They simply make too many errors, and hyperaggression won't compensate for those errors in the long run.

Oh yes,... like Daniel and Annie say, it's true that you can't bluff a bad player.


LGPG,

Babe [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]