[BruceZ]

[ QUOTE ]
Can you really calculate the risk like this?

The players you meet on the flop has decided to play his hand (if he's not in BB and unraised).

An Ace or a King are more likely to be played than other cards. So the real risk must be higher than this calculation suggests.

10-player table: 18 cards that you don't know:
1 - C(44/18)/C(47/18) = 77% risk that someone has been dealt a K.

At a tight table maybe top 1/3 of the king hands are played in unraised pots.
77% / 3 = 25% that a K is in play on the flop.

At a loose table maybe 1/2 of the king hands are played in unraised pots.
77% / 2 ~= 40 % that a K is in play on the flop.

Don't really know how I am going to include the number of opponents on the flop from here.
Or am I thinking about this the wrong way?

[/ QUOTE ]

He wanted to ignore "reads", which I take to mean he wanted to assume random hands. To be realistic, of course we would have to consider the hands the players could actually hold. But your calculation caused me to think of something which I think is important, or maybe not, I don't know I just woke up, but I think it's important. That is, instead of first considering the set of all hands an opponent can play, and then figuring out what fraction of those hands have a king, we can instead use the percentage of random hands that have a king which we computed, and multiply that by the fraction of king hands that the opponent will play. This is a neater calculation which won't change fundamentally when we consider players with different sets of playable hands.