[Supern]

Can you really calculate the risk like this?

The players you meet on the flop has decided to play his hand (if he's not in BB and unraised).

An Ace or a King are more likely to be played than other cards. So the real risk must be higher than this calculation suggests.

10-player table: 18 cards that you don't know:
1 - C(44/18)/C(47/18) = 77% risk that someone has been dealt a K.

At a tight table maybe top 1/3 of the king hands are played in unraised pots.
77% / 3 = 25% that a K is in play on the flop.

At a loose table maybe 1/2 of the king hands are played in unraised pots.
77% / 2 ~= 40 % that a K is in play on the flop.

Don't really know how I am going to include the number of opponents on the flop from here.
Or am I thinking about this the wrong way?