[DavidC]

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The BB is dead money, you want to keep him in to pad the pot. Going to war on the flop is good. Going to war on the turn is better.

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My plan will get in something like: 3sb + 2bb = 7sb.
It might might might get the BB in there for this: 6sb + 2bb = 10sb.
**Both plans get another BB on the river.

This is a pretty good payoff... certainly not the worst thing that can happen, but I'll consider your plan if we're trying to maximize to see what happens.

I don't like the idea of hoping that the BB makes his pair of kings on the turn!!! I mean, what's going to happen... you just called his flop bet.

The king slides off, the bb bets, he calls, you raise, he puts you on AK, BB calls, he folds. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Or, if you're lucky, you get a lot of action from the BB.

Once a K hits, the only way that you get action from the UTG is if HE has KK...

What you're looking to do is have the following happen. fishy has T9, hits his 9 on the turn, he checks, utg bets, you raise, fishy calls, utg does whatever he's going to do, and you get some money from fishy and utg on the river, maybe more on the turn.

This, of course, assumes that BB doesn't already have a pair that he's going to show down for a decent number of bets anyways.

Also, I don't know what the effects will be on the UTG player if you wait to the turn. I mean, will he three-bet you with KK, whereas he would have slowed down had you been active on the flop?

I don't know, but that seems to be a major part of the analysis.

So, could someone please tell us what kinds of turn cards we're looking for in order to make this huge amount of action that would justify us just calling this flop?

I'm ignoring a huge thing here, though: there's something like a 25% chance that this guy has an ace and another card. In that case, he's probably going to call your flop bet and fold on the turn, but on the turn, if you call him here, he's not coming at you again unless he has AK, and even then he may check-call... but then again, you'd be getting more action if the BB had a little to show down and the UTG player had AK, if you start raising now.

I guess the point that I'm making is that if your opponent has a pair, he's going to come after you right away. But if your opponent has AK/Q, then he's only going to start coming after you on the turn if he hits his kicker: about 4 outs (one is the best one: the case ace).

So even if he has AK, you probably get more action by raising the flop.

Also, if you wait to the turn to raise on the K, he may slow down, but if you raise him on the flop, and he hits his K, he'll checkraise you and call down after you three-bet!!! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I really think you have to raise here.

--Dave.