[crazygoose]

IMO I definitely don't agree with the original post. I think you can think of online poker as a business supply and demand model quite simply. One assumption I am making is that there will be a more or less constant supply of fish. As more "good" players start playing, players that used to be marginally beating the game will notice they are losing and quit. Or pros will notice too large a drop in their winrate to continue playing and have it be worth their while. A shift will occur in the demand and an equilibrium point will be reestablished. Even if the supply of fish does change, a new equilibrium point will be established with fewer sharks. The weakness in this model is variance. It will take players a fairly long time to realize they aren't making as much which will create a pretty sibstantial timelag. Especially since it is almost impossible to tell over 20k hands if the conditions of the game have affected your winrate or not. I don't think online poker will stop becoming lucrative anytime soon.