Re: Riddle -- Probability of Expectation
I am going to take a shot at this one. Please feel free to correct any errors as you see fit.
First I solved to find the probability that H, E, or S would all occur at least once in the same 36-character line.
The probability of a specific letter occurring in an independent trial is 0.0384615384615385, therefore the probability of a specific letter not occurring in an independent trial is
1 - 0.0384615384615385 = 0.961538461538462
Therefore the probability of a specific letter not occurring in 36 independent trials is
0.961538461538462^36 = 0.243668721853164
This means that the chance a specific letter will occur at least once in 36 independent trials is
1 - 0.243668721853164 = 0.756331278146836
The chance of all 3 letters occurring in the same 36-character line is
0.756331278146836^3 = 0.432649477099284
Next we need to solve for the probability of either W or U occurring at least once in a 36-character line.
The probability that one of these two letters will occur in an independent trial is
2 * 0.0384615384615385 = 0.0769230769230769
The probability that neither of these two letters occurs in an independent trial is
1 - 0.0769230769230769 = 0.923076923076923
The probability that neither of these letters will occur at least once in 36 independent trials is
0.923076923076923^36 = 0.0560485232822473
Therefore the probability that one of these two letters will occur at least once in 36 independent trials is
1 - 0.0560485232822473 = 0.943951476717753
Therefore the probability that H, E, S and either U or W all occur at least once in a 36-character line is
0.432649477099284 * 0.943951476717753 = 0.408400112809032
Now we need to solve to find out the probability that each 36-character line in a 14 line Sonnet will contain H, E, S and either U or W. This is equal to the individual line probability of success to the power of trials or
0.408400112809032^14 = .00000359088872433288
Therefore the probability that at least one of the 14 lines of 36-characters will not contain an occurrence of H, E, S and either W or U at least once is
1 - .00000359088872433288 = 0.999996409111276
This means that in 154 trials the probability that none of these trials will contain 14 lines that all include the letters H, E, S and either U or W at least once is
0.999996409111276^154 = 0.999447155018702
This means that the probability that at least one of the 154 Sonnets has the letters H, E, S and either U or W occurring at least once in each of the 14 36-character lines is
1 - 0.999447155018702 = 0.000552844981298
*Note I did most of this in Excel and there may be some rounding errors
|