[CieloAzor]

Hmm, I tend to think he's protecting a set of 8s or the straight much more than 1% of the time. I was putting villain pretty squarely on 2 pair or better here, although the A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] + a pair is admittedly possible. The sets have me beat much worse than what I've got over the 2-pair and A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] + pair hands.

I should've ran some calculations through before I posted but I didn't. Seeing that I'm favored over top two is certainly giving me pause here. Pushing has got to be +cEV I think.

On the other hand, I'll win this small tourney about 3x the average by playing small-ball early and pushing people around late. They've got a similar small-field $100+10 tourney on weekends and I've won straight up 6/14 times this year with fields of 24, 22, and 15 amongst my wins. It's not a given that I should race 2-pair here.