[microbet]

Ok, this belongs in theory or some forum that I never post in, or maybe MTT and maybe I'll cross post, but I don't know anyone there and I really want the best shot at a particular member to respond. (you get three guesses and the first two don't count)

You have 5000 players and they come in two flavors. Whenever a FlavorA player plays a FlavorB player the FlavorA player is 60% likely to win a small amount of chips and 40% likely to lose a small amount of chips. When a FlavorA player plays a FlavorA player they are 50/50 to win/lose a small amount of chips. When a FlavorB player plays another FlavorB player they are 50/50 to win/lose a large amount of chips.

Construct a tournament where there are only HU confrontations, obviously, and play with the ratio of FlavorAs and FlavorBs and also what a small number and what a large number of chips means and see what happens, perhaps over a large number of tournaments.

Feel free to either program the simulation or just go stream of consciousness on it.