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Old 10-21-2005, 10:58 AM
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Default Hemorraging with AK

Over the last 20k hands, my biggest loser of the high VPIP hands is AKs at -1.9BB, with AKo being about +.3BB per hand. Sample sets are obviously small, but I think it shows a common problem with my game when I fail to hit the flop.

I'm often HU with AK. I'm getting destroyed by both calling stations and lags. Other TAGs not so much. I'm obviously almost always ahead preflop, but after that my plays are -EV. I don't want to give free cards, but my bet on the flop is nearly always called by either LAG or calling stations.

On the turn, LAGs check-raise me with any pair or draw, putting me in a very tough situation. A guy, OTTO, was raising preflop and check raising or 3-betting most flops and turns last night and just running over the board. Never seen such a clear example of how a LAG can get the best of it just by being aggressive (7.8 aggression over 100+ hands).

With calling stations, my turn bet either doesn't get called because I'm ahead or gets called when I'm behind. I'm rarely betting the turn for value with a missed AK.

So, I'm lost and frustrated and reviewing the last 50 AK hands just shows what I've gone over. Now, the fact AK is losing is variance. The fact I'm spewing isn't.

Seems like my play is putting me into a "win a little" or "lose a lot mode". If I hit, they usually fold and I pick up 1.5-2.33BB (the preflop raise and sometimes blinds). If I miss, I'm losing 2.5-3.5BB. Granted, sometimes I miss and they fold, but sometimes I hit and lose and in those situations, again I'm winning small and losing big.

Even if I win AK the 3:2 it's up on a random 2 cards, that ratio of BB won/BB lost is going to put me in the hole. I don't know that I can win significantly more when I'm ahead, but what can I do to stem the losses? Should I be checking behind on the turn a lot more?

How do other folks here handle a missed AK when you're called on your flop continuation bet? Yea, read dependent, but assume 2 main flavors. Calling station and LAG. One will call the turn with any pair, the other will donk or check/raise with almost any two.

Putting either on a hand is tough given they're usually around the 45-50 VPIP mark. When they're calling out of the blind, it's pretty much any 2.
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