[jedinite]

Who wins if the Texans draft Bush but then trade him?

That scenario is just as likely as them trading the pick outright, so if you win in that scenario (since the texans would use the #1 pick to draft Bush, whether or not they keep him) I think you've got the best of it, but its a narrow margin.

Because as others have pointed out, there's very little chance the Texans will keep Reggie Bush, unless they can find someone to give them a lot for Dominic Davis. I think other teams will be more inclined to give them a lot of value for Reggie instead, so he won't end up being a Texan.