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Old 12-26-2005, 08:21 AM
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Default Re: Party $109 MTT: 99 hand with small M facing a raise

Despite everyone saying this is an auto push I think it's a pretty close decision that slightly leans toward pushing. EP/MP just put in 1/5 his stack, so what would he do this with? Obviously AK-A10 and two paint which are coinflips. Woud he raise here with A9 and A8, maybe, lower than that unlikely. Hands like K8 possible but unlikely. So we have the probable coinflip hands, a few not so likely 70% hands, and then the hands where it's two pocket pairs. There's 5 overpairs, but are there 5 underpairs? I'd say it's more likely he has a higher pair than a lower one. Also he said he thought he had a good stealing position which is another argument for folding. All this is obviously balanced out by the fact he only has 1300 which is a strong argument for shoving in, but if he lets the blinds pass and executes 1 blinds steal he's back to 1300. Is this playing too tight?
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