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Old 10-25-2005, 01:21 AM
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Default Re: pocket 10s on the BB

[ QUOTE ]
*grunch*
I check the flop. It's a completely different and much more interesting hand after that. Betting this flop is spewing IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't take into account the 3 bet preflop. I don't see it changing my opinion. Please flame me. I'd love to know why we're betting here. There's no way in hell that you're folding anyone for one bet.

I don't like this PF 3 bet at all. And I can't imagine why so many people are advocating it. I'd love to see the maths (which I'm not talented enough to do) on 1. the percentage chance an overcard flops and 2. the percentage chance you're not behind when it's 5 handed.

I think you'll find the extra bet OOP PF is -EV.

I'll give the basic stuff a try.

A,K,Q,J on the flop. (16\50)(16\49)(16\48)

By my calculations (which are more often that not wrong) there is a 97% chance an overcard will fall on the flop.

Chance that 1 opponent holds that overcard.
(3\50)(3\49) = 12.1%
12.1%*4 villians = 48.4%
48.4%*97% the card flops = 47%

EDIT: It's actually a little better than this.
You know 5 cards that aren't the overcard (assuming he didn't make a set)
(3\47)(3\46)
4 villians
~51%


50% of time you have TT someone will make a better pair. This isn't too bad, until you consider the following.

1. This is assuming everyone plays completely random cards (it's a raised pot, this is FAR from the case).
2. This is assuming only 1 overcard falls on the flop, and I imagine a large amount of time more than one overcard falls.
3. This is assuming that villian only makes 1 pair. You've got str8 draws, flush draws, 2 pr all of which have a better chance of improving than you (if not beating you already).
4. It only gets worse after the flop.

5 handed, you are definitely playing TT for it's set potential.
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