[Carmine]

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Can we change the read on villain to somewhat decent/thinking player. How much value is in this river bet then?

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From the way villain played the hand and if we accept that he/she is decent/thinking then I feel his most likely hands are 88, 99, TT, AJ, KJs, QJs, and maybe AK with a spade (although a halfway decently aggressive opponent might raise with this at some point, or any flush draw for that matter). He will probably call with all these and maybe raise with KJs or AK, and if we are ok with folding to a check-raise then I think value betting here is good. Therefore the trickier the opponent the less we should be value betting in my opinion.

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Thats my point. There are two overcards on the river to villain's 88/99/TT. How often do you think you are good here once Hero value bets. The missed flush draw isn't calling this river bet. That leaves the K hands which of course call or raise and we lose to. Now that leaves AJ, which I think villain has here 95% of the time. Again how often is Hero going to value bet this river with a lower PP than J's.

I see no reason to make this value bet against a "good/thinking player. The only reason this bet may have some value "in the described situation" is because villain is unknown to hero and likewise hero is unknown(possibly) to villain.