Re: preflop equity
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A 3% edge against 8 people is small, you need MANY hands to overcome the variance.
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Let's suppose that no money went into the pot post flop and that all pots were just the 18BBs already in the pot. This is the worst case for me, given my equity advantage. If I could play this hand 100 times with a 14% equity (3% over my 11% break even equity), my EV would be 50BB/100 hands. Tell me again about needing MANY hands to show a profit.
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99 wins more often than 44.
a set of 9's wins more often than a set of 4's.
99 makes a 1-card winning straight more often than 44.
99 makes a 1-card winning flush more often than 44.
99 wins more often than 44 when there are trips on the board ie. 555.
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Using your own analysis, you show that 99 will win 1 in 100 hands that 44 doesn't - and that's if you go all the way to the river, which you often won't. I was going to figure out the odds of those things you listed actually happening but, of course, you already showed me they happen, in aggregate, about 1% of the time. It's amazing to me that you think it would take 100,000s of hands to show the difference between 11% and 14% equity, yet you think the difference between 14% and 15% equity is the difference between mucking and playing.
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