View Single Post
  #8  
Old 03-15-2004, 08:53 PM
Bozeman Bozeman is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: On the road again
Posts: 1,213
Default Re: Strange hypothetical question

Expressing EV's in fraction of prize pool:

EV of folding, assuming equal players and no ties:
callers EV
9 .33
8 .27
7 .19
6 <~.15
...
1 .1

EV of calling, assuming equal players and that callers have random hands:
9 .311*.5+1/9*.5=.21
8 .347*.48+1/8*.2=.19
7 .388*.459+0=.18
6 .436*~.433~.19
...
1 .853*~.185~.16

So if folding will get you to the money, it is the better play. If it gets you to the bubble, it is close. Anything less, you have to call.

For an extension, here are the results if you are twice as good as an average player (a stack in your hands plays like a stack twice as big in an average player's hands). All other players are assumed to be average.

fold:
9 .336
8 .306
7 .263
6 <~.224
5 <~.202
...
1 ~.169

call:
9 .311*.5+1/9*.5=.21
8 .347*.489+1/8*.2=.195
7 .388*.478=.185
6 ~.436*.444=.193
5 ~.492*.419=.206
...
1 ~.853*.273=.232

Not that different, except this great player should fold if it gets her to bubble+1.

Me, I'd fold with 9,8,7 opps allin, probably not 6.
Also, these #'s optimize $/SnG, not $/hr, but the difference is marginal in all but the 9 allin case.

Craig
Reply With Quote