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Old 12-14-2005, 05:10 PM
TTChamp TTChamp is offline
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Default Re: The paradox of making money from opponents mistakes

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Good point, I should have been more precise. I was speaking of hands that get to SD. There is no way for both players to get to SD playing "mistake-free" in the context of the FTOP (save split possibilities). There is the possibility for both to play "error-free" and get to SD.

Agreed?


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Again, refer to Xhad's distinction between strategic and mathematical mistakes. It is possible to get to showdown without making strategic mistakes, according to Xhad's definition (I think), but it is typically not possible to get to showdown in a non-split pot without someone making a mathematical mistake. Someone has to have a losing hand, and calling with a losing hand is a mathematical mistake.

Of course, it is possible to get to showdown without making any mathematical mistakes if one player is hopelessly shortstacked and the money goes in before the river. If player A has an equity edge, he can bet correctly. If the all-in bet is small enough, player B may still have sufficient pot equity to justify a call, even if he does not currently have the best hand. In this case, the hand could make it to showdown without either player making a mathematical mistake.

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Good point about the non-mathematical mistake SD in all-in situations.

I still don't agree with your first paragraph. Or more precisely I think that saying that betting the AJ in my original scenario is a " mathematical mistake" is a purely academic statement that has no practical application to actually playing poker.

So I guess my question is: who cares if the guy betting his AJ is making a mathematical mistake? It is not any type of error, mistake, or fopa (spelling?) based on the information he has at the time.

The definition of a "mathematical mistake" that Xhad stated involves being able to see the other guys cards. In any real game this isn't true. So if you want to call betting that AJ a "mathematical mistake", I'm fine with that, but I don't see what application that has to actually playing the game.

To me the issue here isn't that the AJ guy is making a mathematical mistake, the issue is that we have an information advantage over the other guy.

We know that our hand is better than his over all of his possible range. We also know that he will think his hand is better than our range of hands when we check to him. Because of this we know he is likely to bet when we check to him. Therefore we are exploiting our information advantage over him to get two bets into the pot instead of one.

When he calls our bet, he knows that against the range of hands we would call a pf raise with and then c/r him with he has the right odds to call. So again he has not made an error of any type based on the information available to him.

The fact that he is actually beat in this particular hand is inconsequential. What is important is that we will profit over the long haul.
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