Re: I am Very Angry
The pure math of this makes it reasonably close but the fact that the blinds are next means your stack is going down by nearly 30% over next 2 hands. You are unlikely to be picking up a hand that is a dominant favorite over the next orbit. If you get cards such that you become a 70/30 favored position, you figure to get called a higher % of the time due to the fact your stack is so unthreatening -- actually, you are likely to be the caller so you have a very low % chance of picking up the blinds. Others will welcome a match-up with your short-stack knowing your desperation and your unthreatening stack. In this case, I would estimate you get called (or you are the caller) a very high % of the time (mathematically, I would use very loose hand combination math). I am sure there is a bunch of random hand math over the next orbit that comes into play here but I am not going to give that math too much thought at this point. I am aware that I am in trouble and waiting is a serious problem at this point due to the current math.
Rather than run numbers that I will never be able to exactly compute during that moment, I will always make some basic estimates and see if its close:
On average, others will call with top 10% of hands, (top 4-6% of hands for UTG+1 thru UTG+3, top 8-12% for next few players, top 15% for last few). This gets you to 55-60% of the time getting called. 40-45% of the time you will pick up the 300 in blinds...
The fact that you may pick up the blinds 40%+ of the time here is in itself a reason to go ahead and move in. This chance is likely to disappear soon.
The dead money in the pot represents nearly 30% of your stack and will rise to nearly 40% if you don't call... making it correct to then move-in with basically anything.
The fact that you are UTG makes this a move-in situation.
My assumptions end with basically the same answer as West:
55% Called
45% Pick up blinds
When Called:
~33% Chance to win on avg (estd wgt avg of 4-1, 3-1, 2.5-1)
~67% Chance to lose on avg
.33 x (1100+300+1100) = 825
.67 x (0) = 0
so,
~750 + 300 = ~1050 = 'its very close'
If you wait, EV will get worse... move all-in
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