Re: player or plumber ???
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an interesting hand for me today in a $50 buy in nl tourney with 430 players. top 50 get paid $125 and up.
in the middle of the second hour with ~ 140 players left i have 2700 with the blinds @ 150 & 75 with an M of 12 and a Q of 0.9. , so i'm in decent shape, but i'm looking to accumulate chips asap.
within the last 8 hands my M was 3 but i luckily caught JJ and KK and showed the hands when i pushed both times.
now , to the hand. i'm in the BB and get dealt Ad9d. utg and utg+1 both limp. both these guys have been splashing around with drawing hands and had raised any time they had shown down mid-big pairs or high cards. the button (with $6,000 in chips) raises to $500, the sm blind folds.
from their previous action, i am certain the 2 limpers are folding to the raise, so i'm not worrying about a sandwich.
there is now $1,025 in the pot (including the blinds) and it costs me $350 to call. the pot odds are offering almost 3:1 to call and the only hand that has me beaten by more than 3:1 is AA, so folding is not an option.
the question is : call, raise or push. opinions ???
i chose to just call thinking if i miss the flop completely i can get away from the hand and still have an M of around 10. if i hit the ace on the flop, i'm probably the favorite and if diamonds come, i'm drawing to the nutz.
the flop comes KdQd2s. i check to try for the free card and my opponent raises $500.
what does my opponent have ??? he could have missed the flop entirely and be making a standard continuation bet after my check showed weakness. although this was possible , i thought he likely held something like AJ, AQ , AK , KQ or KJ and was ahead at this point, however the pot was offering $1,875/500 for the call, so i had to go on.
being out of position , i decided to check raise him all in figuring there was a fair chance he'd fold to a $1,700 raise and if he called, i had a 39% chance if making the pure nutz with a diamond and had some discounted outs to the ace so i was probably like a 45:55 dog if he called and the pot was offering way more than that.
how was that line of reasoning and how would have you played this hand ???
the results : my opponent called and turned over KJo and his kings held up.
comments ???
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