[Guruman]

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When you say Ace high, you mean something like K9 that counts as A-high because of the Ace on board?

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yup. should have been more specific, but many good high cards hands will call here.

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Meanwhile any A, 8, or good T is beating us. So do low PPs, weak Ts, and 5s really outnumber As, strong Ts, or 8s here? My guess is no because a 5 seems so unlikely. I say check/call the river.

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while its true that many aces are beating us, I'd say we can pretty comfortably rule out AK-AT, A8, and most overpairs - as they would have found a raise waaaay before the river. probably preflop or on the flop.

that's 1/4 of the aces right there. the only one pair tens that beat us are QT and KT. Two pair tens either raise that flop or that turn.

An 8 improved on the turn, so it couldn't have raised pf or on the flop without another piece. I usually see an immediate turn raise, but a river raise is not unreasonable.

so when its our turn on the river we're likely up against
-the lower 3/4 of the ace range
-the upper half of the eight range (as 83o probably folds pf)
-the middle 3/4 of the ten range (as big tens will raise pf or on the flop, and crap ten probably fold pf)
-a pp 99 or lower
-some crap king high hand that's looking us up
-a busted draw (like 79[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]) that will probably fold

I think the portion of that range that both calls and would check through if we gave it a chance is significant enough that we have to bet it.

I also hate calling the raise, because the river is the blank of all blanks and it stinks of a slowplayed turn.

people play poker so they can call. Give them a bet to call with. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]