[bluefeet]

IMO it is a mistake to push this river card (value bet was fine).

(rereading Slansky's Fundamental Theory of Poker lately, touching on this very situation)

Coupled with believing you have the best hand (you having stated clearly, that you likely do), is the degree to which you believe he will make this call with a lessor one.

I don't think you can satisfy the latter given this river card, and this river action - often enough to compensate for the times when villian is holding a boat (or possibly weakly played A5).

A hand that fits his PF & post flop pay is 88 (minus not leading the turn I suppose). Granted, it isn't often he holds exactly those two cards. But with your river lead+3bet, a weaker hand simply cannot discredit your trips here...no more so than the likelihood of him holding precisely 88.

Alone with the BB, villian is not playing the flop/turn this passively without a hand that a) doesn't have you likely drawing dead after the turn, or b) simply cannot make this push call --- thus you call the minraise.


Edit: Also not he only minraised your river lead. The above not withstanding, he certainly has the chips to "test" you for the 5 here. This min looks much more like a true value bet vs. some kind of resteal attempt.