Re: 215 Flush on paired board
Cit, help me with my analysis.
The way i see it, he limped UTG preflop. So i guess he can have a range of 22-AA, AJ+, A2s+, and all suited connectors if he doesn't mind playing them OOP. I'm thinking this is as wide as his range could be. I keep forgetting that not everyone is as tight as I am in EP, so they might limp many hands.
He calls the flop bet. Either hes 1) testing with a small/medium pair to see if hes good, 2) on a flush draw 3) Hit the flop hard.
He cold calls a reraise on the turn. I don't think he can do this without a made flush or a boat. I can't think of any hand containing the Kd that isnt KK who was looking for a limp reraise PF and missed. So he MIGHT be looking to hit his flush.
On the river, he leads for our remaining stack. This is exactly how most people would play 88, 22, AA, and a lot of smaller flushes. I guess the chance that he has a smaller flush (or is bluffing with the Kd) is good enough that you should be calling on this river every time.
Did i misstep anywhere?
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