[Danenania]

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Postflop read is overaggro and pays off way too often. Grossly overplays TP/overpairs and bluffs a lot even in spots that look obvious (ie induced bluffs). Commonly 3-bets turn with A-high or a draw. Also calls rivers with A-high or worse in many spots where opponent clearly can't be bluffing.

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I wouldn't check a real hand on the turn on an 8 high board heads up against a player fitting this description in a million years. In my opinion she will find a reason to call even if she has nothing. Of course you will take it down and win nothing sometimes, but she will also spew with or without an actual hand sometimes. Giving yourself the chance to win a bunch of chips by betting the turn seems worth the risk of making her fold.

I like hand 2. It is pretty clear that Nemesis has nothing when she checks the turn and that MP has either a little or a lot except for the few times that he turned a better Queen. I think it is good to give him the chance to bet. Raising the river is best I think because MP can't really call and Nemesis has you beat almost never.

Where is my thinking wrong about Hand 1?

Thanks,
Cartman

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I don't believe your thinking about hand 1 is wrong. It seems like we are operating under different assumptions. Based on my read of her tendencies, I believe her most likely holding to be air, and though she does spew in some spots, I think once she checks that turn it means she's given up her bluff, and will always be folding if I bet. However I can change this by checking the turn--it will often change her mind and cause her to bluff again... or give her a pair that she'll probably bet/call with.

Against an unknown or more of a standard fishy lag you'd be spot on that checking the turn is a mistake. Here it's only a mistake if I've misread Nemesis. That's why I included her ID, so others could comment on whether my read of her is accurate or not.