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Old 10-31-2005, 05:00 PM
nightlyraver nightlyraver is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Over the river and through the woods...
Posts: 168
Default Re: Play A Hand With The Triple Threat (Turn Part 2)

This is a very easy call. The tougher question is whether we should move in.

First - there is most probably a very low chance that this is a bluff. If it is, he is folding to any raise. It would take a lot of stones and a lot of stupidity to bluff this w/ nothing.

Second - There is probably a very low chance that Villian has 2-pair or worse given that he check-raised this turn. The possibility does exist that he has something like AdKc, but this does not fit the preflop action.

Third - The chance exists, but it is still a small chance, that he has a set of tens. He may have been "slowplaying" the flop and now he check-raised in case you have something like AdQs. Still, this is an unlikely holding.

All of this said, we are most probably slightly behind faced with very favorable pot odds and implied odds.

First - Villian could have AJ or J9. This is consistent with the prior action of limp, loose call, slowplay on flop and now he is protecting against a river one-card flush. In this case we are about 43% to win, making it a huge error to even think about folding

Second - Villian could have a made flush. Jd9d is very consistent with the betting. We are behind, but we still are 35% to win, again making it an easy call. However, if Villian already has the nut flush, we are only 22% to fill up. But we are still being offered excellent pot odds PLUS we win his whole stack when we do fill up. Again, our call is easy even if we KNOW that he has a hand like Ad9d, which is also very consistent with the betting.

Third - Villin has KK. This is definately a possibility. He was slowplaying up until now and wants to protect against the one-card river flush. The check-raise is not all that consistent with KK though. If we KNOW he has KK, only then should we lay it down since we are only offered 3.5:1 at this point and he will NOT pay off our draw. However, we can't know he has this hand, and if we did, we should semi-bluff raise as this is the only better hand that will lay down.

Having all this said, we have a very easy call. Now that I worked through it, there is almost no reason to raise and every reason to call. The only problem will be on the river if we do not improve and Villian makes a big bet. I suspect this is what will happen...
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