Two Plus Two Older Archives - View Single Post - 10/20

neon · #6 09-06-2005, 11:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Party Poker Pot-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (5 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Button ($2410.50)
Hero ($2638.50)
BB ($4588)
UTG ($2559)
MP ($2000)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Hero posts a blind of $10.
3 folds, Hero (poster) raises to $50, BB calls $40.

Flop: ($120) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $118, BB calls $118.

Turn: ($356) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $300, BB calls $300.

River: ($956) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero?

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Preflop, I usually raise more here, to $70 or $80, but that's just me.

Flop and turn look perfect. If he got there on the turn w/ 910, so be it, you're still drawing live, and I think you've got him crushed way more often than he has a straight or flush.

River is obviously the interesting street; I see a couple possibilities. One is to bet. You aren't folding anything that you beat, but you just might induce a strong jack, two pair, a smaller set or an overpair to call a bet. A $300-$400-ish bet might induce a call from the weaker made hands in his likely range, but it also might induce a big bluff raise from a naked A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] that missed. Of course, he's also raising a flopped flush, and probably also a turned straight, so value-betting might leave you in a precarious spot. A pot-sized bet screams strength, and would probably only get called by a smaller set or an overpair amongst the hands you're beating, if that. An overbet/open push may let him make a thin call, putting you on the A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or air, and also precludes him from raising you on the river and putting you in a tough spot. Of course, a push isn't going to fold any hands that have you beat, so I'm not super wild about that option either.

Second, you can check-call. I'm not sure if this is weak-tight or not, since you and villain both have plenty left behind, but I've certainly gotten burned in situations like this by treating a set like the nuts and ignoring the very real possibility that villain flopped a flush. I guess it probably depends quite a bit upon a read from villain. This certainly is your best option if villain has the A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or air or whatever, but also leaves money on the table from hands like a strong jack w/ a big spaid that would likely call one more street but that won't bet.

I was also considering a CR on the river as a potential third option, but I think I'd like this idea a lot more if the table was fuller, and this wasn't a blind v. blind hand, so that villain's holding would likely be a bit more defined. I actually don't see a ton of value in a CR on this river now that I think about it in that villain is folding everything we beat once we CR, and we're effectively paying off his stronger made hands by doing so. On the other hand, however, some tricky villains might interpret a river CR as a bluff, and make a really thin call . . .

So I guess I'm pretty torn between check-calling and betting, and for some reason I really don't like a value-bettish sized lead, or a pot-sized bet, so that leaves an overbet/push? (I actually started typing this post a while ago, and just came back to finish it, and saw the river action you've since posted. This is exactly the crappy situation I would be afraid of getting myself into by making a bet that size; he could be making that raise w/ a decent range of hands, some of which you're beating, and some of which you're behind).

I'm not convinced that check-calling is right, but I do think that if you're gonna bet, you either have to be ready to call any size raise, or bet enough that you're committing your stack.

I could, of course, be waaaaaaay off the mark here.

-neon.