Hi Elindauer,

I should have read your post before I created mine.

Reading through the math, everything looks fine except
I get 15% (184/1225) for the probability BB has an Ace but not AA instead of 16%.

It turns out that the case when the SB has Ax has a large impact because you turn a blind stealing situation into a small win.

13% of the time the SB draws to an ace and misses = .31SB
3% of the time the SB draws to an aces and hits = -.21SB

Then 59% of the time you steal the blinds = .885SB, and:

.885 + .325 + .31 + .12 - .35 - .21 - .21 - .054 ~= .82 SB / hand

That comes to about $800/hr, down about $150/hr from when the SB was ignored.

I liked your analysis a lot, thanks.

-v