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Old 11-29-2005, 05:16 AM
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Default Re: 88 check/raise river?

I don't think playing for the turn check-raise is all that bad. Assuming villain isn't overly passive, I think it's rather safe to assume he'll bet the turn with his likely range (AK, and the big pocket pairs). However, I think they're a few key problem with this line, including:

1. Villain may fold a pocket pair, like TT or JJ, to the turn check-raise.

2. The turn being checked behind by hands like JJ, QQ is a very real possibility.

3. A 3rd [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] may fall, which may encourage villain to fold to a check-raise, or go passive with a hand like AK

4. You miss out on value on the flop when villain holds AK.

5. A turn check-raise is generally very transparent, and will often alert the better/thinking players.

In this situation, I like leading the flop and taking it from there. If called, I'd continue to lead both the turn and river. When raised on the flop, I'd probably opt to check-raise the turn. I think when we're raised on the flop villain will often want to see a showdown, and thus payoff a turn check-raise. 3-betting the flop also has its merits, and is undoubtedly the better line if villain will cap with AK.

Obviously, the best line here is very dependent on the opponent, and a read would come in very handy. With that being said, I'm leading the flop here and hoping villain is overaggressive with an underpair or has spiked TPTK, or better yet has AA.
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