I do not consistently bet on sports. Every now and then I see a line I just cannot pass up. When checking my records over the past couple years I am up. I just don't engage in the time you all put into sports betting. I guess I might be a sqaure in you all's words. But even a square can have an opinion.

and for the negative thinkers out there.... I did take a good loss on OU/TCU, but i think the world did....

Stop weighing all the small factors: Bruschi, Payton underperforming, Brady...ect. Small things (intangibles) affect betting when the game has some crucial importance. Like the notre dame/usc game carried that magnitude. This game believe it or not does not. The Colts for the first time beleive they are going to win(not just have a chance). They finally have D, for the first time in a while. They have a balanced offensive scheme that is not as vunerable to Billechek's (however it is spelled) scheming and confusion. Payton used to rely more upon his ability to make checks on the line, but now thier offense has shifted to the point where EDGE is the man in thier system. Finally New Englands pass Rush is beat up, thier secondary weakened (no Ty Law) and the best QB-WR combo in NFL history and NFL's top rusher is facing them. Point blank that is not good news for new englands D, I don't care how well coach B prepares. And offensivly The colts match up well.

The varable in this game is the same as always. Who the hell is going to show up to play? In the NFL that is the biggest determinate. With an opening line of -3 for the colts (I have not seen the most recent) is a steel. Focus on the big things. My biggest wins this year have been (ND v USC), (dallas v Phil), and (Seatle v SL). If you can think back there were some big factors that could show how these games were +EV bets.

Just the opinon of a square, take it or leave it.