Re: fluctuations in expected flop distribution
i see that i elided from my reasoning the immediate match of the original marble. 39/51% of the time, the second marble will not be identical to the first. the third marble has a 24/50 chance to match either the 1st or the 2nd marble. therefore, 1-39/51*24/50 of the time, there will be a match.
sorry, shoddy reasoning on my part.
what a relief, i was thinking i'd have to quit playing poker!
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