[ElSapo]

Sorry for the late response to this, but...

...mayeb I'm still not clear on this idea. Why does the bet have more value because the line moved?

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look at it from a pure marketplace perspective. he 'bought' the under at 188 and its now selling at 182, giving him a boatload of value.

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Why does the bet have more value? He still has the same bet -- u188, albeit the line moved. But I guess what I don't see is how the line move affects him.

Semi-hypothetical: I'm in a pool where we pick against the spread. The lines go up on Monday and do not move througout the week. By your statement, I would be best off waiting until Sunday morning and comparing actual lines to the pool lines, and betting where I saw the most value?

I guess what I mean is, the bet is still the bet, and our man made his bet based on his belief at the time. Just because it appears many people agree with him, books included, does not seem to add value inherently.

The six-point o/u move is a big one though, I'll give you that.

Am I way off here?