Re: blind play
[ QUOTE ]
I think calling this turn bet is out of the question.
[/ QUOTE ]
Thanks for your response, though, I decided that I owe it to myself to look for the answer myself rather than rely on you guys like I've done since I started playing semi-pro over a year ago.
I gave a hand range for my opponent and I imbued him with the skills to be a great poker player. Against this mastermind, I find that I'm a 2.5-1 favorite to be ahead by the turn and a 1.3-1 favorite to be ahead by the SD. Obviously, I'm getting enormous odds to raise this. So how much credit should we be giving unknown players?
40% of them are loose passive (super rough estimate)
40% are tight passive
10% are LAG
9% are winning players, lets say TAG's
1% are superstar.
So if 10% are capable of throwing me off the best hand here then do I still have the odds to raise? How would I calculate that exactly?
I'll give it a try: There's a 68% chance that I'm best at the moment, if I'm facing a TAG. Yet only 10% of players are TAGs. Does that mean there's only a 6.8% chance that I have the best hand? If there is only a 6.8% chance that I have the best hand and I have to win 28% of the time to break even then you are right, Cartman, calling is out of the question. (though, I considered raising rather than calling.
If anyone wants to respond to my estimates and how we use those estimates to determine our odds, I'd be grateful.
|