Re: An old live hand
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The times we're not ahead we're drawing to 3 outs at most. I don't think it's close, he's loose and will probably call down with all hands that beats us and when he bets the turn he has us beat ~90% (I would probably estimate that it's even more than that).
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You're ignoring that we picked up a gutshot on the turn to go along with our top pair/weak quicker. That said, I agree that the check-raise is ill-advised.
The way I read the hand, when the original poster picked up the gutshot on the turn, he donked representing a made straight. I think semi-bluffing into three other players in a relatively big pot is unlikely to work. Especially with the flush draw out there.
Still, given that this isn't likely to be checked around and that we probably have 7 outs if we're raised, we might as well bet if we're confident that the passive button won't raise on the expensive streets.
As to the river, having missed our outs, and given that our call doesn't close the action, I guess the fold is fine. Still, given the size of the pot and that the player behind us hasn't shown any aggression, I probably make a crying call.
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