Re: Was Villain Right?
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Or villain has 88, 55, 44, or TT and you're drawing dead to your gutshot. Your ace outs are tainted and its not because villain has JJ-KK.
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I don't think a guy with these stats 3 bets 55 or 44. So we're only really bad against 88, TT, and AA.
AA, TT, 88 -- 12 combos (4 outs)
99, JJ, QQ, KK -- 24 combos (7 outs)
12 * 4 = 48
24 * 7 = 168
48 + 168 = 216
216 / (12 + 24) = 6 outs
We have on average close to 6 outs on the turn -- even more if SB might be going a little nuts with AK or AQ or something. Plus when we are behind a set, we usually collect 2 bets on the river when we hit. Even if you only get 1 bet on average against AA, the turn call has to be correct.
Folding the turn is an error.
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