Thread: Overcard Delema
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Old 12-26-2005, 05:34 PM
Posts: n/a
Default Re: Overcard Delema

First post ever! Hi, everybody.

So, preflop you are OK. Assuming the .25/.50 is very loose, you might be facing something like four 40's, so you will have a significant equity edge. If we guess 40, 40, 90, 8, you still have 20% more equity than your share. If your game is that loose, you can PFR liberally, since opponent hand selection is not such a problem. Just remember to not get tied to coordinated flops.

The flop may be fine. You've got 16+ SB in, 20 I think, and the flop is so multiway that you should discount your overcard outs to say 4, or perhaps 3. So you have over the requisite 12 to 1 to call under a 4-out evaluation, and over the 16 to 1 to call under a 3 out evaluation.

The turn has a blank for you, so you can take a similar stance as on the flop, but with different odds. 16.5 BB are in the pot? Our odd are a bit tighter now, making you a dog under a 3-out evaluation, taking rake into account. Whether to use the 3 or 4 out evaluation depends on how you think MP3 will bet. If he represents the table's passive style, he might only bet out the flop with 2pair, set, or top pair (its also possible he flopped a straight). The probability that he has just a pair or high card (the only hand you can beat with your outs) depends on his willingness to bet, given that he has bet.

The river is a fold.

Hope this doesn't stink!!
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