Re: Did I give this pot away?
There aren't enough good hands available for 5 different players to bet and raise on that flop. Therefore, your evaluation that "nobody gets far out of line" is incorrect. At least 3 of them are, either by failing to raise with their big pairs before the flop or raising with their cheese on the flop.
Bet this one out on the flop.
But you checked. Your flop conserns are realistic. Never-the-less you are getting 6:1 for your 1.6:1? squirrely draw. That means your hand only as to win about 1/3 of the time you make it to make money, even taking into account the fact that you have bad implied odds. Call, deal with your puckered underpants later.
On the turn... Lets see, you are worried about having the best hand and don't want to bet what's probably a loser. That's a realistic consern. Never-the-less [1] If you have the best hand you can expect around 5 calls, so you only need the best hand one time in 6 to make this a "bet for value". [2] By calling the cap and then betting out you are pretty much guaranteeing that nobody is going to raise you off your hand, since its pretty darn obvious what you have. They will call, but not get out of line. If you check, you CAN get blown off your hand. Reason [2] is worth a LOT more than reason [1].
Bet this one out on the turn, again deal with ... later. Figure to call all future single bets and fold to any double bets. Check-raising is an option depending on who bets.
Generally: there are a lot more cheese hands that bad players can get out of line with than there are quality hands that beat flushes. Just because a table of your clones would guarantee that someone has a big flush or a set doesn't mean that THIS table has one.
- Louie
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