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Old 12-20-2005, 11:39 PM
Augster Augster is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 44
Default Re: Any reason to NOT fold this flop?

Grunch.

?

Raise the flop (hopefully to get a free card) and call a 3-bet.

What hands get capped from UTG? AK, AA, KK, QQ, JJ? That's about right I'd think. And that's if the guy is a rock. LAGGY opens up a at least a few more hands.

So you are behind a lot of them, but EVERY one of those hands bet out on that flop. With the re-raise, you show you aren't scared of the Ace, that you have the Ace, and you are raising your ace for value.

Hopefully, it'll slow down KK, and QQ. Anything else is 3-betting, and I'd call that and fold the turn UI.

There is 10.5 small bets in the pot when it's to you. You have backdoor 3rd flush outs and a backdoor straight draw. Plus I think your J outs are good, if he doesn't have AA, but will give the other guy a redraw to a gutshot straight.

SO if you raise, and get 3-bet, you are paying 3 to win 12.5 with the turn card.

But that's if you get 3-bet. If he only calls your raise, you can most likely take the free card UI on the turn.

Being that you have about 4 outs (1.75 J's, 1 BDFD, 1 BDSD)I would say, you could just call his bet getting 10.5 to 1.

I prefer the raise, if not only for the free card, to make a weak-tight fold their KK or QQ, or at least go into call-down mode.
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