[Nightwish]

Preflop: I will frequently 3-bet with KQs. However, this guy's PFR is low enough that I don't feel comfortable doing it. However, it's not so low that I feel that I should be chucking this hand (as I would if it were below 7.5 or so). To be honest, my guess is that it's pretty close between all 3 options, and calling 2 cold is the least likely of the plays I would normally choose.

Flop: seems pretty standard, I want to see how this hand develops, and I'm not worried about any draws.

Turn: when he calls my 3-bet, I know he has one of 3 hands: KQ, AA, AK.

River: that 6 is obviously a problem. The worst part is that the villain knows exactly what I have. I'd be shocked if he's putting me on anything other than KQ. But of course, there's enough doubt in his mind that he wouldn't fold AK in an 11 BB pot if I were to bet the river. However, does his river check tell me anything? I think he's a little more likely to bet with AA, but if he knows that I know that [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img], I can't put it past him to attempt a check-raise with it.

The bottom line is that I'm ahead of 8 hands, behind to 6, and chop with 4. So can I bet-fold? It all depends on how likely he is to have KQ. He knows I don't have KK or QQ, so the only reason for him not to cap the turn is because he's worried about 66 (obviously, he's far less worried about 66 on the river). Would I play 66 the way I did so far, including the preflop cold-call? I wouldn't, but there are many TAGs who would (I know this because I see them make these plays). Most importantly, his biggest reason for not capping the turn with KQ is that he should know that once I 3-bet, he's either behind or chopping. So I cannot quite discount the chance that he has KQ.

All of this makes the river play tricky. I'm only a little bit ahead of the hands I lose to and I'm not even sure if I can fold to a check-raise because he can now check-raise KQ almost with impunity (only one 66 hand left that he's behind to). Again, my guess is that all the options here are pretty close in terms of EV.

I elected to bet, and fortunately, he made it pretty simple for me by just calling with his AK.