[eastbay]

Shadow,

I think it's a good place to start. The difficulty I possibly see is that any deviations from linearity may be small, and since what we'll be looking for is small deltas, it will again be hard to find them (with any confidence) without huge sample sizes.

BUT, I think it's worth trying anyway, and if you do find the S-curve phenomenon, fame and riches await you. Well, not really, but it would be a very cool result nonetheless.

Before we get into questions of sufficient sample sizes, etc, do you have something in mind for how to do the data mining?

eastbay