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Old 08-23-2004, 12:51 AM
West West is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 20
Default Re: This \"only play the nuts...\" business in O8

Thinking about this some more, as I was wondering if my thought to "fold in a heartbeat" was a little hasty. The truth is, I'm new to thinking about "sucker straights". Your odds of the nuts changing by the river are (23/45)+(22/45*26/44)=80%, not counting the potential backdoor flush outs that would push the % higher. Of course, just because the nuts changes, there isn't a guarantee that someone will have it. Maybe you have to judge here based on the game, your opponents and your position whether you can see the turn for a single bet. But I'm thinking that unless you're position is great you should probably fold, since there's such a large probability that you're nuts will not be the nuts by the river, and it's a virtual certainty that you are playing for no more than half the pot. Another factor here is that there was no preflop raise, though lots of players paid to see the flop.
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