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Old 08-22-2004, 11:30 PM
West West is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 20
Default Re: This \"only play the nuts...\" business in O8

I would say that this is definitely what is meant by a "sucker straight". First, you are absolutely, positively playing for half the pot. The low has flopped, and it would take an insane miracle for you to somehow scoop the low. You're playing for half the pot. All you have for backup is a 7 high backdoor flush redraw, which I believe is 21 to 1 against hitting, and probably will be no good even if you DID hit it given the amount of opponents you have, and a miracle runner runner full house draw (which it of course you wound up hitting, but your odds of that were worse than 1 in 100.)

In one of those links you posted, there was a discussion about a hand that also had a 653 flop, but the guy had 2478 instead of JJ74, and thus had two things going for him that JJ74 doesn't - he had a draw to a wheel (and thus was not necessarily playing for only half the pot), and having the eight in his hand meant that although his straight was vulnerable to flush draws and the board pairing, it was less vulnerable to a higher straight hitting. Any 4,7,8 or 9 along with any pair hitting the board takes the nuts away from you. That's a whopping 25 cards out of 44 you haven't seen, with two cards to come. AND you've got tons of opponents (just realized you said this was .05/.10 - so I'm guessing there's not a lot of folding - which means you're straight has next to no chance of holding up). AND you're playing for half the pot, if that - someone else could easily have the same straight, in which case you're playing for a quarter of the pot. With very little chance of hitting anything better that will win. The lows are basically freerolling on you with whatever high draws they have, be it backdoor flush draws, any kind of straight draw, or even trips. Fold in a heartbeat.

Losing the jacks full to four sixes is just a bad beat. But on the turn you basically were calling with three outs (and as it turned out, 1 out, but most of the time you'd have 3) - two jacks and the 5d. That's 3 in 44, or just better than 15 to 1. 7 small bets preflop, plus 18 or so on the flop (you said you put in a second raise, so I'm assuming that means three bets per customer on the flop) is 25 SB, or $1.25. Even if it was a single bet to you with everyone acting in front of you, say, 4 players, and they all just call, you'd be paying .10 for a shot at the high half of what's in the pot ($1.65/2 = $.825), plus the $.05 of your $.10 that would come back to you, plus whatever you might profit if you hit (implied odds). Paying more than one bet on the turn means getting even worse odds. You weren't getting the odds to stay in on the turn.
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