[silkyslim]

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I think another way to play it is to call the flop and raise any non A or K flop if and only if the button doesn't raise the flop. And to fold the turn if button raises the flop.

That might be better, actually, but realize that it entails a MUCH higher financial risk in a situation where we do not rate to be in that good shape.

My main desire to raise the flop is that I think this particular opponent might be especially likely to fold AK on the flop here.

From just a very vague mental estimate, I think that I can say with a fair amount of confidence that if the button will fold AK here 50% of the time then raising is definitely correct. My sense is that button has to fold AK something like 40-45% of the time for the raise to be EV neutral.

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ok so i pokerstoved it up, put BB on random, me on AJo, and assumed villain had AK. our equity is ~16% before he folds and jumps to 60% if he folds. thats kickass. so you were pretty close with your estimate. so the point was with these players and our position we really need to try and isolate even with this measly hand. our hole cards are somewhat secondary to the players and board texture.
P.S. if we wait for the turn our equity goes from 10% to 56% if that means anything/