[playersare]

without handicapping the game, it's still clear that everyone and their mother has money on SC. Bodog is still listing them at -2.5 which is pretty much where everyone has it.

I don't think the people who bet so far necessarily have a read on the matchup - it's just that around 11:30am EST, pinnacle burst out the gate with +1.5 +114 to +118 and all the arbs and scalpers jumped in and cleaned all the softer books out, so they had no choice but to move the number in order to stop the frenzy.

this kind of market activity generally dictates that SC is the "right" side. a sharp book like pinnacle baits you with 'free money' on Pittsburgh (the side they want you to LOSE to them) at the expense of all the other books who will have no idea what hit them, and will be forced to pay off all the winners if pinnacle's move is correct (which is usually the case in the long run).

betting SC at -1.5 was probably +EV. betting them at -2.5 is probably breakeven at worst. these sort of random inter-conference games are rarely close IMO. SC is a proven winner at home in the early season, and Pitt has some much tougher opponents coming up so they will not necessarily deplete their energy before flying back to play Wisconsin on NYE.