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Old 12-05-2005, 01:25 AM
Lmn55d Lmn55d is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 5
Default Re: Q9o freeshowdown raise, is this pointless?

I don't like raising the turn.

1) If you call the turn sometimes the river will go bet/raise before it gets to you and you can save a bet.

2) If you raise and sb 3bets you will be getting 12.5:1 and could have up to 5 outs (against AA and AK which are 12 combos). You would be drawing dead against KK and QQ which are 4 combos. So if this is his 3betting range, you have 5 outs 3/4 of the time and 0 outs 1/4 of the time. So on average you have 3.75 outs. The call seems pretty close to EV neutral. It's probably a fold if you consider that he might not 3bet AA or AK. But the fact that it's close adds value to some other lines that allow you to see the river.

3) You charge hands like AT or AJ that aren't willing to bet or call a bet on the river. However a lot of times a LAG will bet these (god knows why) or call a bet with them with 0% equity on the river. So this offsets the benefit of charging them on the turn to a large degree.

4) The thinking lag could hold a hand like TT that would fold to a turn raise but possibly either bet or call the river.

5) I doubt the middle guy here is folding a hand that you want him to fold.
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