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Old 12-15-2005, 04:34 PM
tolbiny tolbiny is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 52
Default Re: a hand youll all probably hate

I isn't hugely relevant to this hand since he has a king high draw + likely additional outs- but i am sick of this statement-
"i have a flush draw, i have 35% equity, i should cap it if its three ways."

I see it so often in ahnds where they are the bb with 87s on a K T 2 board with 2 of their suit.
35% is a tiny ev edge and it doesn't make much to swing it to a bad play, because your flush draw does not win 100% of the time it hits.
1. There will be bigger flush draws out there, leven if its only 2% of the time you hit your flush that a bigger one is out there that takes your 34.5% equity down to 32.5. Also One big card of your suit will beat your flush 16% of the time that you hit it on the turn, 1/6th of 17%/2(cause somethimes a bigger heart won't be out there) is about 1.5%, and your "equity edge" has gone from 35 to 31, and all the extra bets are now costing you money. Sure you will hit trips or two pair, but others will hit boats on your flushes, meanwhile you risk driving out paying players, and sacrifice the EV of getting multiple bets in when you do hit your flush, on bigger streets when you likley have a 90% edge, not a 2% one.
Thisisn't really directed at you oregod, its just a general rant about players who overestimate the strenth of thier hands from the word go.
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